Though a number of favorable factors that help comprise the National Association of Credit Management’s Credit Mangers’ Index (CMI), problems with sales ultimately outweighed the positive toward the end of 2012.
The CMI, available Friday afternoon (see link at bottow of story), will show a slight decline for the month largely on disappointing sales figures. NACM economists Chris Kuehl believes this reinforces the notion that business is stalled out in anticipation of what might happen with spending and taxation next year. There was some cautious optimism just one month ago in the CMI, but that optimism has seemingly evaporated, as it seems all but certain that there will be no settlement of lasting value on the “fiscal cliff” issue paralyzing Congress and the Obama Administration.
Other favorable factors statistics were not expected to register the same level of distress, even though a few small declines were expected. Additionally, the unfavorable factor index for December will show only a slight decline. The overall sense is that this month’s decline is due to the tensions existing among (and caused by) federal lawmakers. The inability of Congress and the president to make a deal has already cost significant economic growth, and it is now anticipated that real decline in GDP growth will be the next outcome.
“The reaction captured in this month’s CMI shows a stark lack of confidence as opposed to anything substantial,” said Kuehl. “The overall news for the economy has been pretty good, and so it is with much of the CMI. The factors most connected to mood and confidence are the ones slipping. The whole business community seems to be in state of suspense.”