Managing Credit Risk

Though outsourcing has its detractors in the United States and pro-labor countries because of protectionism and/or grim economic prospects, many international credit professionals at FCIB's Annual International Credit & Risk Management Summit in Hamburg still rely on a shared services center or have more regularly come to establish their own new roots working in one.

FCIB Board Member Martine Zimmermann, credit manager at F. Hoffman-La Roche in Switzerland, noted many in her industry have centers in places like India and some Eastern bloc countries. However, having faced uncertainties, with the most notable ones being salary increases and frequently changing staff, she admits some colleagues are not quite as sold on it.

"This is especially an issue in India, where its known escalation as a key emerging economy is forcing a change in demographics, or at least demand from those who want to move up a rung amid newfound wealth, or for some, a livable wage," one credit executive at the conference noted during a question-and-answer session that intimated it might not be the right time to outsource anything more to India. "But there are still plenty of Asian and Middle Eastern areas drawing attention for the same reasons India did a few years ago: significant cost reduction."

Meanwhile, FCIB Board Member Henk Swinnen, of Netherlands-based DSM Shared Financial Service Center, defended the use of shared services centers. He noted," let's say the average rate is 7000 euros—if you increase it 10% per year, it's still much cheaper than Holland, and northern Europe." He added that his company was not outsourcing, "we're offshoring," and noted that after 10 years of use, a shared service center has been very positive.

Katarzyna Wawro of Hitachi Data Systems noted that she has been working in a shared service center, adding that, like many others, that satellite office of a foreign corporation started small and expanded after finding success. "Initially, we only did simple processes. Now everything for managing credit is there and we are doing all collection for Europe, Canada and the U.S.," Wawro said.

Not every delegate at the summit was without serious concerns, however. For example, panelist Raul Davila of New York-based Bamberger Polymers was among those who said complications with moving functions of the business farther and farther away from the main credit department hub can easily arise and oftentimes be harder to fix when thousands of miles away, or when they're operating on significant time differences, or in a vastly different cultural landscape.

- Brian Shappell, CBA, NACM staff writer

Look for more coverage on FCIB's recently-concluded International Credit and Risk Management Summit in NACM's eNews, on NACM's blog, and in Business Credit magazine!

As would be expected, FCIB’s annual International Credit and Risk Management Summit kicked off with a lot of talk of the problems in the European Union. Notably, doomsday predictions about Spain and of a potential Greek exit from the Euro—which have been covered in NACM's eNews and blog—were front of mind. Also of particular interest during the conference, currently ongoing in Hamburg, was talk of conditions in the Middle East.

During a discussion looking at the region, and trade therein, one year removed from the Arab Spring uprisings, panelists surprised some in the crowd by outlining a perhaps overlooked fact about Middle East-based businesses and their proprietors amid the many perceived cultural differences: that there are actually more significant commonalities with so-called “traditional” businesses in the West than often depicted.

“We have exactly the same types of worries; we have the same concerns about the future, our kids, etc.,” said Ferda Efe, a senior director with Ashland Specialty Ingredients in Istanbul. “They’re really not that different from the rest of the world. We are all one world now, in the end.”

Additionally, panelists poked some holes in notions that Middle Eastern businesses, officials, salespeople or credit professionals are so culturally unique for taking the time to build the trust level of a relationship, having distaste for when someone overpromises but under-delivers and being dogged in negotiations. Among those three characteristics, are any of these things an American or European credit professional would NOT want?

Similarly, a presentation on Islamic banking laws/Sharia law compliance by Dr. Salman Khan generated interest, if not controversy at times, by showing that the traditional banking methods and products are similar. In fact, to become Sharia compliant with a credit agreement, a traditional product is held up as the model and stripped of things that are not considered compliant (the ability to make money off interest, things considered not in “good faith” or ethical, etc.). Additionally, Khan alleged there was “little meaningful difference between the conventional banking industry and the Islamic banking industry at present.” He characterized the differences as “cosmetic, theoretical and superfluous.”

“What has happened in reality, the facts are thus: the implantation in practice has diverged from theory to a large extent,” he told FCIB delegates. “You have a Sharia-compliant, not Sharia-based, industry paradigm. The Islamic banking and finance industry operates almost entirely from infrastructure designed for the conventional banking system. There has been no development of a tailored system. The point is Islamic banking has to fit into the platform, however that is even really possible.”

Brian Shappell, CBA, NACM staff writer

Through this week’s elections, the Greek populous and opposition politicians sent their anti-austerity message and thumbed their noses at those holding the purse strings behind the European Union and International Monetary Fund’s bailout of the debt-addled nation. Other members of the EU, mostly northern, aren’t taking it lightly—and the response could lead to even greater uncertainty.

Railing against the austerity demands allowed by incumbents, neither of the two major parties—New Democracy and Pasok in Greece—were able to come close to winning a minority. This situation will cause heightened uncertainty (disruptions) in the nation and beyond over the coming weeks. The politicians who made the gains railed against any ideas for alliances and have publicly voiced rhetoric about desiring more favorable bailout conditions.

Those footing the bill, notably the Germans, aren’t amused and have answered with thinly veiled threats about delaying the planned bailout payment to Greece scheduled for today (Thursday). Worst-case scenario has Greece falling out of the Euro by some time this summer, NACM Economist, Christ Kuehl noted.

But what is the big impact on the credit industry? Perhaps the answer, for the short-term, is to do nothing except keep an eye on things very closely in the coming days and weeks ahead. Remember the basics: know your customer.

Ben Deboeck, country and sector risk coordinator for Ducroire Delcredere (keynote speaker at FCIB’s International Credit & Risk Management Summit in Hamburg from May 13-15), noted that Greek unrest rarely comes as a surprise anymore. Deboeck pointed out that bond markets barely moved.

“Nothing too surprising happened yet,” the Belgian-based Deboeck told eNews. “So, immediate consequences of the Greek elections, as well as French elections, are rather limited I'd say. More important than Greece/France is probably what is happening in Spain, with the government finally moving towards action to tackle the banking problem”.

Going forward, however, Deboeck admits the impact of sustained volatility or an increase in volatility could affect consumer and business confidence and therefore eventually, credit.

- Brian Shappell, CBA, NACM staff writer

For more information on next week’s International Credit & Risk Management Summit, including Deboeck’s keynote speech, visit www.fcibglobal.com. Additionally, check out the NACM blog and future editions of eNews for on-site coverage from the event.

A common theme that emerged in nearly every session at this year's FCIB International Credit Executives (I.C.E.) conference was the ever-expanding role of the credit department. From assessing risk beyond accounts receivable, to implementing bold new productivity enhancements, credit professionals seem to be asserting themselves into numerous other functions of their companies, and presenter after presenter at the conference seemed to prove it.

Held from May 2-4 this year at the luxurious Westin Michigan Avenue in Chicago, I.C.E. offered attendees the chance to hear cutting edge, in-depth economic presentations from an elite set of presenters, along with worthy insights from professionals that shared their day-to-day responsibilities and concerns. Chief among the presentations that focused on the mutual exchange of practices between credit professionals was a productivity enhancement roundtable, moderated by honorary life member of FCIB David Marsh, CICE, CBF.

The session offered four individual credit professionals a chance to discuss specific changes they made to increase productivity in both their departments and their companies. Susan Fattore, ICCE, corporate credit manager at Heico Companies, talked about consolidating her company's 20-plus accounts receivable operating systems. After six to eight months of preparation and three years of implementation, Fattore noted that the single system now in effect improved efficiency for her and credit staff at Heico's numerous other entities. "There's no human error and it promotes better communication among the credit managers because they know which of them share the same customers," she noted. "It gives users access to information that they didn't have prior to the system."

Kelly Bates, FCIB vice chairman and director of global credit & collections at Chiquita Brands, Inc., talked about her efforts to shift her company's global credit function to a North American headquarters. Inconsistency among credit and collection practices drove Bates to push for a more centralized credit function. "At first it was rejected, but I think it was a process of elimination," she noted. "It evolved into the right decision." Now, Bates noted "our best practices were tweaked into global policies and procedures. The reporting structures are consistent and everything is managed out of our department."

Implementing a new, similarly consistent bolt-on system that focused on collections was the focus of Larry Durrant, CCE, ICCE of UPM Kymmene, Inc.'s presentation. "We had so many systems and so many practices that we needed standardize," said Durrant, noting that choosing the right system for the company was an intensive process that involved the IT, credit risk management and purchasing departments. Nonetheless, the results have offered a great deal of user flexibility. "They can pull their statements any time they want, they can track their orders and they can get their invoices," he added. "They can view their account any time 24/7 and see what's paid and not paid."

Finally, Rick Hayes, ICCE, senior manager of worldwide credit & collections at Viskase Companies, Inc., recalled his experiences at a prior company eliminating redundancies in their order management process. "There was a trade credit operation and then there was a long-term customer financing operation, and the two were throwing a lot of data back and forth," said Hayes. "There was a lot of time spent looking at the same things." By bringing in new analysts, Hayes was able to reduce deductions, headcount and take the company, as he put it, to a point "where we're spending most of our time on fire prevention and much less time on fire fighting."

After that, attendees gathered for a networking dinner and reconvened the next morning for two especially relevant presentations, the first, a global economy forecast from NACM Economist Chris Kuehl, PhD, and the second, a "Doing Business in the BRICs" panel, this time moderated by Kuehl. Previous panelists Fattore and Hayes joined Luis Noriega, ICCE, vice president of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and Norman Zusevics, credit risk manager at Shure, Inc. in a lively, attendee-led discussion of selling concerns in these economically hot countries, as well as many others beyond the scope of the presentation's title.

Between the diversity of the program and the wealth of networking opportunities that punctuated each presentation, the 2012 I.C.E. conference served as a model growth tool for credit professionals, offering answers to attendees rather than just rehashing their problems.

For more information on FCIB's educational opportunities, visit www.fcibglobal.com. And don't forget to look for pictures from this year's I.C.E. conference in the upcoming June 2012 issue of Business Credit.

Jacob Barron, CICP, NACM staff writer
 

Two global service providers recently joined forces to create a new way to facilitate trade finance.

SWIFT, a financial messaging provider for institutions in 210 countries, and the banking commission of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) collaborated on the Bank Payment Obligation (BPO), a new payment tool that can be used between banks and looks poised to enhance, or possibly replace, commercial and confirmed letters of credit.

The BPO essentially moves all of the manual tasks associated with using a commercial letter of credit and automates them, creating fewer chances for errors throughout the process. It represents an irrevocable undertaking given by one bank to another bank that payment will be made on a specified date after a specific event has taken place, according to SWIFT-ICC. “This ‘specified event’ is evidenced by a ‘match’ report that has been generated by SWIFT’s Trade Services Utility (TSU), or any equivalent transaction matching application,” they added.

Interoperability between participating banks is made possible by the BPO’s reliance on a standard set of messages, each of which reflects events that have taken place in the physical supply chain, and “create trigger points for the provision of financial supply chain services.” For example, the bank’s systems could generate a message that proposes offering pre-shipment financing based on a trigger point that indicates the confirmed receipt of a purchase order, or a proposition of post-shipment financing based on the receipt of an approved invoice. In either case, the BPO would be used as collateral for the financing.

The reliance of all participating banks on the single messaging standard, called ISO 20022, takes the guesswork out of the documentary credit process. “Open account often fails to provide banks with access to underlying transaction data—impeding their ability to follow relevant events in the physical supply chain,” said SWIFT-ICC. “The BPO and related ISO 20022 messaging standards provide access to relevant data, records and reporting—giving banks the ability to provide risk mitigation, finance and payment services while introducing additional automation and efficiency into the supply chain management process.”

In other words, by matching data according to the messaging standard, banks get a front row seat for the entire supply chain process and can react immediately to the occurrence of certain events. Furthermore, matching the data automatically ultimately removes the subjectivity associated with the manual checking of documents. Instead of having to look at the actual documents and make a judgment call on whether or not they’re correct or in compliance, banks will know instantly if there’s an issue or if the documents are good to go. “There is no subjectivity attached to data matching,” said SWIFT-ICC. “It either matches, or it doesn’t.”

So far SWIFT and ICC have only signed an agreement confirming the framework for the future publication and maintenance of a set of contractual rules that will establish uniformity of practice in the market adoption of the BPO. Stay tuned to NACM’s blog for further developments.

Jacob Barron, CICP, NACM staff writer

 If I had waited a day, and worked my way through another module before cranking out CICP Road Diary #4, I could’ve done a massive, convoluted blog entry about how this course goes into the nature of transactions from both sides, and then goes into both sides of those both sides. Whoa.

Confused yet?  I know I am. Probably best then that I just wrote the last entry when I did, rather than waiting and corralling it all into one, long, plot-twisting explanation.

For those who are new or who didn’t click that link up there, in my last entry, I talked about how the CICP course will take you through both the elements of international credit and risk management at a bank, and international credit and risk management at a seller’s company. That was really only part of it though. I just got to Module 10 (fell back behind again, due to a presentation on the Credit Managers’ Index (CMI), which, hey, have you heard about it? It’s awesome) and I’m reading about financing international trade from the importer’s perspective, which is to say the buyer’s perspective.

Banks, sellers, and now buyers, the triumvirate of international business, all of them here, thoroughly discussed and analyzed.

It sometimes seems like I forget that buyers exist, which, in fairness to me, kind of makes sense. NACM is here to help people extend commercial credit, which is a function of selling really. But I may be guilty of dividing sellers and buyers up as though they were always two separate and unrelated entities. It’s probably news to no one but myself that, hey, sellers need to buy things too, and buyers need to sell things too. Pretty basic stuff here, but it’s easy, when focused on the process of credit extension, to forget that the buyer isn’t just the person who’s either going to pay you or not, they’re a person and a business, trying to make it just like you are. They have to do what’s best for them, as do we all.

The only way I can even remember addressing the plight of the importer, or buyer, is a long time ago when I mentioned in an article how sellers can sort of coach their customers into being a successful business (and by extension, an excellent customer). They can help them get organized and help them find sources for new sales and new markets (if they have the resources to do so).  It’s a noble goal; it helps establish the business relationship and enhances the chance of prompt payment and if a seller can coach its customer into growth, hopefully that customer will turn around and need even more product.

I probably didn’t include this in the article, but, internationally speaking, this kind of win-win scenario seems like it would be much easier if you understand terms and financing from the importer’s perspective; what they’re looking for and what they want, as opposed to what you’re really willing to give.  Trade financing is an especially interesting point because both buyers and sellers need it, but they often have different reasons and (often very) different preferences about how this financing is administered.

I guess what I’m saying is that the CICP course will remind you that, as it is on the dance floor, so it is in business: it takes two to tango.

And possibly three to tango, if you count the bank.

Okay, it takes more than one to tango. I think that’s a fair compromise.

Till next time,

~Jake

"Neutral, relative and necessary."

If you read those three words out loud, dramatically and in a deep voice, they could almost sound like the tagline to a new political thriller or legal drama, possibly one that takes place in Switzerland, or during an especially captivating arbitration proceeding. I don't think such a film exists, but rest assured that if it gets made in the next few years, I'll be suing whoever made it.

In any case, those three words are culled directly from a lesson in the CICP course. At the beginning and end of every module, and sometimes at the beginning or end of a lesson (modules are the big chapters, and they're divided into lessons), the instructor offers some valuable, broader, more philosophical tips and summaries, and this one caught my eye. The thing that the course says is neutral, relative and necessary is risk. Whether it's political, financial, documentary, or interest rate-, acceptance- or foreign exchange-related, risk is a neutral, relative necessity in the world of commercial credit.

Now, this may be something that all credit professionals keep in mind at all times, but it still struck me as a remarkably powerful assessment of what risk is. I've written article after article about how to mitigate risk and reduce it, treating risk like it's a bad thing; the enemy of commercial credit extension, both domestic and international.

This is hardly the case though, and while I still stand behind those articles I wrote and believe risk mitigation is something that creditors do on a daily basis, it's important to remember that risk just...is. It's not an enemy or a friend, nor is it something to be combated or cultivated, it just...is. I'd imagine that recognizing this fact, that risk is something a credit department lives with, but can't do without, is one of the first steps toward becoming a great risk manager, and looking at it this way certainly affected the way I viewed the credit function as a whole. Credit departments and credit professionals aren't meant to eliminate risk, they're meant to make it manageable, and profitable, to be comfortable with something that's, by definition, kind of uncomfortable.

The idea that risk is "neutral, relative and necessary" speaks to credit's role not just as a financial buffer, but as a revenue generator. Another line I wrote down from the course, not from the same lesson, I don't think, is that credit should be viewed as "an investment in receivables." An extension of credit isn't just giving someone something for free and then hoping they pay back, it's an investment in the company and the company's future. I've probably written as many articles on risk mitigation as I have on credit's reputation as "sales prevention," which is something the CICP course recognizes and addresses with thoughts like this. Risk as a necessary constant, and credit is an investment.

Just something that struck me I guess. Back to work now. For those of you keeping track, I'm almost caught up, and should be 100% before week's end.

Till next time,

~Jake

It's been just short of two weeks since my last entry here, and let me freely admit that although I've spent much of that time catching up on my CICP modules, I still remain a tad behind on the program.

In addition to offering a layman's perspective into the nuts and bolts of the CICP program and what it requires of its pupils, this series will also, in all likelihood, give you a glimpse into the production schedule of Business Credit magazine since, when I'm not working through my CICP modules and learning to calculate ratios for the first time in who knows how long, I'll be working on articles for that publication, or for eNews, or working on advocacy initiatives as they come up.

Currently, I've been at work on a feature article for the April 2011 issue, one that has occupied much of my time and will focus on customer relationships between sellers and buyers in countries facing political turmoil. I got the idea from watching the ongoing revolts and uprisings in Libya and Bahrain and the revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere in the region. While time spent researching and interviewing isn't exactly time spent going through the class, in a way, even as I worked through the CICP modules, I felt like I was helping my article, since certain class topics (especially those on the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA)) seemed to speak directly to what I was writing about.

Also, in the process of writing the article, I've spoken to other credit professionals, ones with business ties to the Middle East and North Africa, and it's remarkable how similar the things they've said are to the things the CICP course says. It's never been clearer to me that the class was created by people who manage risk, and have managed risk, successfully, everyday, in some of the least hospitable places on the planet. Each has reinforced the other for me; the quotes I've gotten from credit professionals seem stronger when they're nearly identical to things included in the course, and the things in the course seem more applicable when they're echoed by other credit professionals.

In any case, we've reached the break week that comes in the middle of every CICP course, which will allow students like myself to catch up and poke through the discussion boards to see what everyone's been talking about. I've been doing that on and off since I began the course, but I've mainly been focusing on getting through the modules, and getting up to speed. I'm looking forward to seeing all the good conversations I've missed, and hoping not to miss any in the second half of the course, which officially begins next week.

I know I've said a lot about how behind I am, and how my other professional obligations have gotten in the way, but I hope that doesn't fool you into thinking that this is too much for a professional to handle. Firstly, if I may make a suggestion, don't start the CICP program when you're on vacation in Mexico. I can't stress that enough. I know it's lovely down there, but try not to.

However, if you do that, like I did, and end up behind your classmates, the most important thing is not to let that convince you that the course can't be completed. The CICP program seems to have been designed with the knowledge that it's inevitable that some people will fall behind, whether due to a sudden influx of increased work responsibilities or ill-timed vacations or anything else you can think of. Things can seem a little daunting, sure, and it's hard work, but as long as you make the time to go through it, and work out an efficient studying procedure, it'll all work out. I'm going to complete it. I'm sure of it, and I'm sure you can complete it too.

Till next time,

~Jake

My name is Jacob Barron, and I am not a credit manager.

I'm a writer and government affairs liaison here with NACM-FCIB in the national office, and have been since 2006. Near the end of last year, after some discussion with colleagues and friends, I decided to enroll in FCIB's online CICP course, also known as International Credit and Risk Management. At the end of the course, in April, provided I complete it successfully, I'll be able to sit for the CICP (Certified International Credit Professional) exam and, if I pass, attach those letters to my name, business card, email signature, and anywhere else I see fit to attach them.

You could do the same, if you take the course that is, and to give you an idea of what that's like from a practical standpoint, I'll be posting my own ruminations on the class, its material and its demands here in the form of a diary. I won't be starting the entries with "Dear Diary" or anything, but the idea's the same. I'm calling it my CICP Road Diary, and I'm hoping to provide updates on a weekly basis from here on in.

Think of this as a travel guide, written by someone who has only researched and heard about the journey in question, but never really made the trek himself. This is to say that, sure, I've had plenty of experience delving into the process of commercial credit management, both on an international and domestic basis. I've read countless case studies of relevant bankruptcy proceedings and spoken to untold dozens of credit and risk management practitioners about the issues they face in the global economy, in their companies, in their departments and in their quests to better themselves for the sake of their careers.

But as I said at the beginning, I'm not a credit manager, and while I won't get a "credit manager" badge when I'm done, what I will get is weeks of experience talking with other credit managers from around the world. I'll get a deeper understanding of the skills necessary to succeed in an increasingly globalized economy, and a thorough knowledge of the strategies, challenges and conflicts that can crop up in any international business venture. I'll also hopefully get some new friends and contacts, to whom I can turn whenever a question comes up that I can't answer.

What you'll get from the course, if you decide to take it, really depends on how you treat it, I suppose. But what you'll get from me, here, is at least a peek into the process of going through the modules, taking the tests and engaging my classmates in the discussions. Ideally, this road diary helps me organize my thoughts as much as it helps you understand the challenges and the rewards that go along with the CICP course, and hopefully it all entertains you along the way too.

The course began about a month ago, while I was on vacation, so, in the interest of full disclosure I'll admit that I'm still playing catch-up. The hardest part so far has been re-learning how to be a student again. I've only been out of college for five years now, but all of my old studying strategies don't seem to work as well as they did in college, when all I was expected to do was schoolwork, and maybe write an article or two for the school newspaper. Now I have a job, and a class to take care of, so I've had to find new, more efficient ways of learning and studying that better suit the situation.

I think I've gotten the hang of it, but, overall, it's been an interesting, enlightening month, and I'm eager to see what's next. So, with that said...

Till next time,

~Jake

Reeling from debt and its workers' demonstrations against austerity measures forced by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, Greece took another proverbial shot to the jaw this week as one of the "Big Three" credit ratings agencies dealt a massive, three-level credit rating downgrade.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded Greece's government bond ratings to a level of Ba1, which is considered junk. Moody's also hit the city of Athens with a similar downgrade, noting that reliance on central government transfers to pay for operations and capital investments makes it and other sizable Greek municipalities "unlikely to possess sufficient financial flexibility to enable their credit quality to be stronger than that of the sovereign."

Moody's, who again came under attack from Greek officials over the move, defended the downgrade decision citing three reasons:

1.) The fiscal consolidation measures and structural reforms that are needed to stabilize the country's debt metrics remain very ambitious and are subject to significant implementation risks.
2.) The country continues to face considerable difficulties with revenue collection.
3.) There is a risk that conditions attached to continuing support from official sources after 2013.

"Moody's recognizes [sic] the very significant progress that Greece has made in implementing a large fiscal consolidation and introducing the legislation required to support a wide-ranging structural reform programme [sic]," the ratings agency said in a statement. "However, Moody's believes that the Greek government still faces a very significant challenge in its continued execution of the measures required to both increase revenue and achieve efficiency savings as part of the austerity programme [sic]. Whether relating to improvements in the operating efficiency of state-operated enterprises, to the savings required in the health service or in military expenditure, or to the implementation of deregulation measures passed by parliament; the task facing officials and managers remains enormous."

The ratings agency, considering the outlook on Greece "negative," now places the likelihood of a Greek government default at upwards of 20% within the next five years. It has been widely reported that ratings agency Standard & Poor's is keeping close watch on Greece's present meetings with fellow euro zone member nations over its debt and solutions to address it. It remains possible, if not downright likely, that a similar ratings downgrade could be on the way from that agency, which already values Greek debt at junk levels and its credit rating as poor.

Greek officials, who have regularly bashed the ratings agencies for their own poor track record of ratings in the run-up to the global economic downturn as well as what it perceives as obvious conflicts of interests in their decision-making, again responded to Moody's with vitriol. They've characterized the latest downgrade as "incomprehensible" and "unjustified," much like they did during downgrades that preceded Greece's acceptance of a bailout package rife with unpopular austerity demands in 2010.

Brian Shappell, NACM staff writer

Coverage of FCIB's New York International Round Table is available Thursday in NACM's eNews and an extended feature will be included in the soon to be released March issue of Business Credit Magazine. As always, the Round Table featured interested insights and strong opinions on economic and credit conditions in the United States and abroad.

Here are some interesting quotes captured during the Wednesday's event:

"Creditors lose with inflation; debtors, like the U.S. government, win with inflation," said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes ACI. "Some countries now are discouraging investment from foreigners with hot U.S. dollars."

"There's eight times the amount of people among the Indians and Chinese. Protectionism will no longer be an option," said North on projections of the shrinking dominance in relation to world GDP in deference to India and China. "It's doesn't mean we're not going to be important or prosperous...but it puts us at more risk to growing creditors and losing the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency."

"Access to credit information is getting more and more restrictive [in China], said Joachim Bartels, managing director of the Business Information Industry Association. "They find loopholes on financial information, targeted at Dow Jones, Bloomberg, etc. If we can't deliver commercial credit information, it will be damaging to our market; and it will be damaging to their market.

"Banks are starting to lend again, business is getting done," said Garlow.

"They've become credible inflation fighters," said North on Brazil.

"I don't think there really is a currency war," said Josh Green, CEO of Panjiva. "Currency is a bit of a side show when you think about trade. The future is going to be more about market access. Can we get access to the various Chinese markets, Indian markets?"

"In my world, the big question is where is the next China," said Green. "Realistically, there is no next China. People talk about Africa. But, realistically, what kinds of investments are being made. People go there for stuff, resources, not the people or their skills at anything."

"Quantitative easing (by the Fed) = printing money = inflation pressures," said North. "The Fed soon will be chasing inflation for a long time."

"We must touch third rails of society: Social society and Medicare," said North. It's an ugly job, but if we don't, never going to fix budget."

"Customers are not complying with terms," said David Garlow, VP/country risk manager, of AIG Global Trade. "Conditions are improving, banks are starting to lend again; business is getting done."