The overall economic narrative in the country for the last month has been a question as to whether the latest run of bad economic news is a temporary phenomenon or is the harbinger of much worse to come. As many analysts have asserted that this is all attributable to the earthquake and “Arab Spring” as those who assert a double-dip recession is setting up for as early as the third quarter. Most of the economic community is somewhere in between, but much of the interpretation lies within the latest run of data, and the National Association of Credit Management
Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) for June suggests the temporary impact position has some validity.
The dramatic collapse reflected in the May CMI eased up a little in June. The index numbers bounced around, but these variations were obscured somewhat by the fact that the index as a whole was flat. Considering this month, it is very apparent that the devil is in the details. The overall index number was exactly the same as it was in May—54.2—but there were significant changes in the combined sub-indices for favorable and unfavorable factors.
“The most distressing news comes from the number of credit applications received and the amount of credit extended,” said Chris Kuehl, PhD, managing director of Armada Corporate Intelligence
and NACM economic advisor. Many businesses seemed more cautious in the last month or so. Part of this is still related to the issues in Japan and the fear of higher commodity prices, but there is also some growing unease regarding political games. “Few really believe that the United States would put $100 billion at risk in its securities market by not raising the debt limit, but there is intense fear that Congress will take the game too far and provoke a reaction in the markets before it reaches an agreement,” Kuehl said. “It appears this trepidation is affecting the willingness of businesses to expand and seek additional credit. The good news is that sales have risen during this period; in the past, expanded sales usually beget more credit requests and more credit extended.”
The bad news in favorable factors has been balanced out by good news in some of the unfavorable factors. Many signs of distress weakened a little. There were fewer disputes and fewer dollars beyond terms. While there were also fewer bankruptcies, there were still concerns about the number of credit applications rejected and the number of accounts placed for collection. “The overall impression is that there is some separation taking place between those companies that have weathered the last few years and those that had been counting on an economic breakthrough to help salvage their financial position. This is a development we’ve referenced before and the pattern is still evident,” said Kuehl.
As the recession gives way to a slow recovery there is a series of expected moves from the different players in a given industry sector. The market leaders start to anticipate the end of the downturn, and they are ready to ramp up and make an attempt to grab market share from rivals. The best-prepared companies make the first moves forcing competitors to try to keep pace. Some do, but others begin to falter as the business they expected to cover their investment fails to materialize. Right below the market leader category is the market challenger and they are looking for the weak link among the market leaders. They push with their own expansion schemes in an attempt to supplant them. If they calculate correctly they make the jump; if they do not they fall back and start to struggle with cash flow. Right behind the leaders and the challengers are the market followers and they are waiting to see how the bigger battles play out before they choose which approach to emulate.
“Right now the economic recovery is waiting for the market followers to make their move. This is the biggest category of business—and the most cautious,” said Kuehl. The CMI data suggest that this sector is starting to have more active sales activity, which generally provokes more credit demand. The majority of credit requests have been coming from either the most important customers with the best credit or from those struggling on the bottom tier. “When the middle levels start to get earnestly engaged is when there is potential for more general overall economic growth.”
The online CMI report for June 2011
contains the full commentary, complete with tables and graphs. CMI archives may also be viewed online