BMI Research has identified 10 countries and five key industry sector trends set to drive economic growth over the next 10 years. Collectively, the 10 emerging markets are expected to add $4.3 trillion to global GDP by 2025. The countries include the following:
“Extractive industries will play a far smaller role in driving growth compared to the past 15 years,” BMI said. It expects a “lost decade” for commodity prices out to 2020 with prices remaining “comfortably” below 2008-2011 peaks, and mining, oil and gas sectors having slower growth than over 2000-2011.
Secondary and tertiary industries such as construction and manufacturing, and retail, consumer and business services, respectively, will be key drivers of emerging market growth. New manufacturing hubs will emerge in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan. Widespread growth in the construction industry growth will focus on facilitating vast increases in urban populations and supporting the development of new manufacturing zones. “The service sector will be a key growth driver across the countries in question, particularly financial services and retail,” it added. In the largest of the economies—Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and Nigeria—growth will occur across many sectors.
- Diana Mota, associate editor