Consistency is generally a positive development when the overall readings have been positive, and this is the case for the August report of the (CMI) “The August CMI reflects a more optimistic future, but not an economy that is likely to surge,” said NACM Economist Chris Kuehl, PhD. “In comparing this month’s reading to that reported by the Federal Reserve, it is easier to understand the optimism about the last half of the year, as well as the worry about the impact of inflation fueled by some of this growth.”
Many of the CMI’s categorical readings showed no significant change. Areas like capital utilization and capital expenditure stand in stark contrast to the wild gyrations in the overall growth rate as first quarter numbers were in recession territory at -2.1%, while the second quarter boasted a gain of over 4%,” Kuehl said.
Consistency in the unfavorable factors, especially, suggests that none of the economic concerns that started the year have been sufficiently serious to drag the economy down. “The financial distress at the start of the year has not triggered a wave of business failure, and now that seems even less likely,” Kuehl said.
Concerning the manufacturing and service sectors, neither saw significant change in the overall index reading, though individual factors fluctuated more widely.
For a full breakdown of the manufacturing and service sector data and graphics, view the complete August 2014 report at http://web.nacm.org/CMI/PDF/CMIcurrent.pdf. CMI archives may also be viewed on NACM’s website at http://web.nacm.org/cmi/cmi.asp.