The president of the country has fled to the east and is now facing an order for his arrest by the new acting president and the parliament. Most of the Yanukovich supporters in Parliament have also fled east, and that leaves the power in Kiev in the hands of an opposition that is united in only the most tenuous way.
But the fact is that Russia will never allow the formal
disintegration of Ukraine, but there may be little they can do to stop
the de facto divide between the pro-western and pro-Russian halves of
the nation. The euphoria of driving Yanukovich from the capitol will be
short-lived as they start to face the reality of governing in the
shadow of a Russia no longer distracted by the Olympics.
Analysts are already watching a massive shift of security personnel
out of Sochi and towards the border with Ukraine. There is no sense that
Russia will sit idly by and watch the country split, It may well offer
tangible support to bring Yanukovich back to power. The fact is that
Ukraine is facing long-term volatility and perhaps its most severe
crisis ever—more than when it split from the USSR and even more than
when the Orange Revolution took place.
- Chris Kuehl, PhD, Armada Corporate Intelligence