More Bullish Predictions for US Growth, Creditworthiness in 2014


Add the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Coface to a growing list of those predicting big things economically for the United States this year.

IMF’s 2014 growth forecast for the US has been raised to 2.8%, marking an improvement from its forecast during the fourth quarter last year. IMF hinted that federal lawmakers getting (slightly) more work done, and on a timetable with reduced brinksmanship regarding matters like the budget, provided reason to believe domestic demand will rise steadily throughout the year. The IMF’s outlook for overall global growth also increased since October, but by a smaller amount, to 3.7% despite concerns about slowing growth and newfound volatility within the big emerging economies.

Meanwhile, Coface’s Country Risk Update noted that the US business climate and credit risk environments showed “considerable improvements” in recent months. Coface noted a number of strengths within corporate America from a credit standpoint: high levels of self-financing, record profitability, low debt and strong investment. Like the IMF and others late last year, Coface analysts were also encouraged by a break, however slight, in partisan rhetoric and legislative gridlock within the US capitol:

“Clearer budget and monetary policies and growth in household demand boost positive trends.”

- Brian Shappell, CBA, CICP, NACM staff writer

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