There has been a consistent challenge over the last five years of what passes as an economic recovery from the global recession. The business community went into almost complete hibernation as the crisis began, and they have been compared to a startled turtle ever since. But there is now some evidence that this period of extreme caution may be ending, which would signal some real gains in the months to come.
- The first indication of improved corporate attitude is that there has been impressive growth in recent quarters. The unexpected rise to 4.1% in the third quarter GDP numbers would suggest that there was more going on than appeared to be the case at first blush. There has been more aggressive activity coming from the top of each industry. If these trends hold, there should be some more consistent growth.
- Consumers may be close to shifting back to their more traditional spending habits. The amount of credit card debt has started to rise again even though that wasn’t really evident in the holiday season.
- Corporate leaders seem to fear political interference less than in the past. This may prove to be an unrealistic position, but, for the moment, there is an expectation that politicians will be far too concerned with the upcoming election to be as troublesome as they have been in the past.
- There is more confidence in the recovery of some of the rest of the world. There may be widely divergent opinions about the ability of other parts of the world to make a significant comeback in 2014, but there is slightly more enthusiasm than has been the case in the last few years, notably in emerging Asia, Germany, Mexico and Columbia, among others.
- More corporate growth may come from the stock market. There is renewed market interest in those who seem to have an expansion plan.