Trade Gap Narrowing Overshadowed by Drop in Exporting, Surge in Pricing

The Obama administration, U.S. businesses and domestic analysts alike have been pining for a narrowing of the domestic trade gap. And, although just that occurred in February, the news was overshadowed greatly by statistics indicating the first decline in exporting activity in six months and a worrisome price spike on both exports and imports.

Newly unveiled Commerce Department statistics indicate that the trade gap narrowed in February to $45.8 billion from $47 billion. However, both importing and exporting activity were down, by $3.6 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively. The drop in exporting activity despite a doubling-down by the Obama administration to make trade more of a priority in recent months than in any stretch of this presidency came as an unsettling surprise to analysts and economists. The knee-jerk response from markets has been one of renewed uncertainty regarding the continued strength, or lack thereof, of what has already been considered a lackluster and disappointing economic recovery over recent months and years.

Meanwhile, Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers on import and export price indexes, also announced Tuesday, show higher fuel prices causing a surge in the cost of various products and materials worldwide. Import prices increased by 2.7% between February and March. The index for the important fuel category alone jumped 9%, the largest advance since June 2009, the bureau noted.

Export prices also increased, by 1.5%, from February to March, similar to the previous month’s uptick. Of particular interest is the continued rise in agricultural exports. Those increased another 2.3%, with spikes coming within the corn (9.2%) and cotton (10.5%) commodities. The bureau noted Ag prices has surged by 34% over the last year. Much of this is attributable to draughts and wildfire catastrophes in places such as Russia as well as supply damage caused by out-of-season freezes in some key growing areas. While the high prices are helpful for those producers who evaded crop damage and saw quality yields, the price surge certainly is a double-edged sword that could cut those in the small business exporting game deeply.

Brian Shappell, NACM staff writer

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